Iraqis go to the polls to vote in parliamentary elections
Summary --
Iraqi citizens were scheduled to go to the polls on March 7, 2010, to vote in the second parliamentary elections since the 2003 United States-led invasion of that country. The elections occurred at a significant moment in Iraq's political landscape, with United States military forces due to withdraw most of its combat troops by the middle of the year, and a full withdrawal anticipated by 2011. With varied political blocs expected to win representation in parliament, a coalition would likely have to be forged. Whether or not this complicated political terrain would result in more diverse and representative governance was yet to be seen. Without a clear winner, an alternative scenario may involved heightened ethno-sectarian tensions, effectively setting the stage for a resurgence of conflict.
Pre-election Violence --
With violence on the rise in the months leading up to the much anticipated elections, security was increased across the country, with close to one million military and police personnel deployed to key areas. Notably, 200,000 security personnel were to be deployed in Baghdad alone. As well, internal travel was restricted across the country, with vehicles banned and the border with Iran closed. For some time, there have been fears that security gains made in the last year could well be reversed. Indeed, there were prevailing anxieties that Iraq could backslide into a state of ethno-sectarian war.
While one Sunni militant group, Army of Naqishbandi, said it was laying down arms for two weeks so that Iraqis could participate safely in the parliamentary elections, it was clear that other groups did not hold such a view. Indeed, on March 3, 2010, two car bombs exploded close to government buildings in Baquba, to the north of Baghdad. In the first attack, the suicide bomber detonated his explosives-laden vehicle at a checkpoint close to a government housing office and a police station. In the second attack, another car bomb exploded at the headquarters of the provincial council. More than 30 people died as a result and dozens more were wounded. After injured victims were taken to a hospital for treatment from these two bombings, the hospital itself found itself to be a target of a third attack when a suicide bomber -- dressed in a police uniform -- detonated the explosives strapped to his body.
On the first day of early voting, several people were killed. Suicide bombers targeted polling stations in various locations across Baghdad such as Mansur and the city center. In one case, a mortar attack was apparently aimed at a polling station and landed in a crowded market. Early voting -- ahead of the official March 7, 2010 date -- was scheduled to allow government employees, prisoners, and hospital patients to cast their ballots.
Backgrounder on the election --
Approximately 6,300 candidates from close to 300 political enclaves and alliances were contesting the elections for representation in Iraq's 325-seat Council of Representatives. The main coalitions were as follows:
- State of Law Coalition (Shi'ite dominated bloc includes Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Dawa Party, several Sunni tribal leaders, Kurds and several individuals)
- Iraqi National Alliance (major Shiite-dominated bloc including Ammar al-Hakim's Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), followers of anti-American cleric
Muqtada al-Sadr, former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Ja'fari, leading members of Dawa Party, and former Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Chalabi, the leader of the Iraqi National Congress)
- Iraqiya List (multi-sectarian alliance led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite, and including Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi and Salah al-Mutlak's National Dialogue Front, which earlier threatened to withdraw from the election on the basis of discrimination as noted below*)
- Iraq's Unity Coalition (headed by Shi'ite Interior Minister Jawad al-Bolani but includes key Sunni figures, such as Ahmad Abu-Risha, the leader of Sunni militia "Awakening Councils" of Anbar province.
- Kurdistan Alliance (composed primarily of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, led by Kurdistan Autonomous Region's President Massud Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, led by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani)
- Iraqi Accordance Front (Sunni-dominated bloc that includes Iraqi Islamic Party, parliament speaker Ayad al-Samarrai, along with several other Sunni politicians)
The State of Law Coalition's strongest challenges were expected to come from the Iraqi National Alliance and Iraqiya List. The Unity Coalition was also expected to gain seats in the parliament, while the Kurdistan Alliance was expected to retain control over several parliamentary seats. By contrast, the Iraqi Accordance Front was expected to suffer diminished representation.
In the background of these prognostications resided the controversy surrounding a move to prohibit certain parties from contesting the elections. At issue was the January 2010 decision by the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission, which prohibited more than 500 Iraqi politicians from contesting the elections due to alleged ties to Saddam Hussein's Baath party. That decision left politicians out of contention and garnered criticism from the international community. A month later, a court overturned the ban; however, this ruling was itself ultimately reversed. As a result, Mutlak of National Dialogue Front* was banned from contesting the election due to connections with the Ba'ath Party of which he was a former member. His party had threatened to withdraw from the election as a result. The matter exacerbated already strained tensions between the main ethno-sectarian groups, with Sunnis alleging discrimination.
Latest Developments
On the official voting day -- March 7, 2010 -- Iraqis went to the polls amidst the threat of violence with bombings and mortar attacks across the country -- from Baghdad to Mosul, Fallujah, Baquba and Samarra -- killing more than 35 people. United States President Barack Obama hailed the elections as a "milestone" in the recent history of Iraq, saying: "Today's voting makes it clear that the future of Iraq belongs to the people of Iraq." He continued, "Today, in the face of violence from those who would only destroy, Iraqis took a step forward in the hard work of building up their country." The United States president also reiterated his expressed intent to withdraw combat troops from Iraq in August 2010, with a full withdrawal expected by the close of 2011.
On the domestic front, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki dismissed the attacks, characterizing them as "only noise to impress voters," and asserting that "Iraqis are a people who love challenges" and whose morale would not be weakened. He also called for full participation in the country's fledgling democracy, and urged all politicians and parties to accept the election results saying, "He who wins today may lose tomorrow and he who loses today may win tomorrow." Those words were not likely to be easily accepted by some factions. Notably, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi of the Iraqiya List registered his discontent with the conduct of the elections, charging: "There was major confusion inside and outside Iraq in the voting centers and that leaves a question mark over the [electoral commission's] role."
While election results were not available at the time of writing, as noted above, the general view was that some sort of coalition government was likely to be formed. As well, there was a good chance that Prime Minister Maliki would retain power at the helm of a Shi’ite dominated coalition. However, he would also be tasked with bringing the Sunni minority into the fold of his government, or risk them feeling alienated from the power base in Iraq. Such an end would only imperil the country's security by igniting already-festering ethno-sectarian tensions.
-- Denise Youngblood Coleman Ph.D.
Houston, Texas
March 8, 2010
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